Forecasting & Sensitivity Analysis of the Decay of Viral Load in HCV Infection during Treatment by using Mathematical Tools and Simulation
Authors
Dhirendra Kumar Shukla
Department of Basic Sciences, Corporate Institute of Science and Technology, Bhopal (M.P.), India
Author
Arvind Gupta
Department of Mathematics, Govt. Motilal Vigyan Mahavidyalaya, Bhopal (M.P.), India
Author
Anil Goyal
Department of Applied Sciences, UIT-Rajiv Gandhi Proudyogiki Vishwavidyalaya, Bhopal (M.P.), India
Author
Keywords:
Mathematical model, Graphical presentation (MATLAB), Simulation (RStudio), Forecasting of decay of viral load, Sensitivity analysis (Origin Lab), Clinical data
Abstract
The present paper gives a brief description of study of decay of viral load in HCV infection during treatment of patients through various mathematical tools. In the study clinical data of few patients have been taken. The basic model of HCV infection adapted by Neumann et al has been taken in to account and explained to understand the decay or flow of viral load. For eight consecutive weeks data of viral load has been taken which is based on clinical data. Then, by using RStudio simulation (R-language) viral load is forecasted further for six more weeks. The forecasted viral load totally resembles with viral load through clinical data established by using Origin Lab. The sensitivity analysis of study of viral load of HCV during treatment for fourteen weeks shows specific pattern which will help in the treatment of Hepatitis C infected patients. In this study immunity of a human body is excluded.
